場所：帯広畜産大学 総合研究棟一号館 E2503
Quantitative risk assessment:
Some applied examples in animal import & disease surveillance
Jenny Markov, eidg.dipl.vet.med.
Postgraduate student in the group of PD Dr. Katharina Stark EVEPM
Swiss Federal Veterinary Office SFVO
Department of Monitoring, Bern, Switzerland
After an introduction into risk assessment methods and the use of mathematical modelling within this field, some applied examples will be discussed. To get closer to practicing modelling, submodels out of three quantitative import risk assessments, one deterministic and two stochastic models using @RISK software, are demonstrated. Those include a risk assessment to estimate confidence level of freedom from disease after last year's imports for bovine leucosis and IBR, one regarding the import of live cattle concerning IBR, and one on the import of live pigs with respect to Aujeszky's disease. In order to focus on the technique behind it instead of just the results, solutions to resolve several subproblems, applicable to any import risk assessment, are presented. The examples are addressing general questions such as the probability of detecting infection during quarantine, the sensitivity and specificity of testing a group of sentinel animals, and the probability that the animal has already seroconverted at time of testing. Other topics are how to implement risks of being infected for different age classes and a proposal for a non-standard approach to derive estimates for test performance from literature by using bayes modelling. Depth and extent of explanations and discussion will be determined by the audience.