定量的リスク評価：スイスにおける家畜の輸入と
　　　　 疾病サーベイランス事例の紹介

大学院博士後期課程の研究課題としてリスク評価研究を行っているジェニー・マルコフさんが帯広畜産大学に滞在しています。この機会を利用してスイスの事例についてお話を伺うことになりました。

 

日時：平成18年8月21日　15時〜17時

場所：帯広畜産大学　総合研究棟一号館　E2503

問い合わせ：門平研究室（０１５５−４９−５６１７）

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（英文要旨）

Quantitative risk assessment:
Some applied examples in animal import & disease surveillance

Jenny Markov, eidg.dipl.vet.med.
Postgraduate student in the group of PD Dr. Katharina Stark EVEPM

 

Swiss Federal Veterinary Office SFVO
Department of Monitoring, Bern, Switzerland

 

After an introduction into risk assessment methods and the use of mathematical modelling within this field, some applied examples will be discussed. To get closer to practicing modelling, submodels out of three quantitative import risk assessments, one deterministic and two stochastic models using @RISK software, are demonstrated. Those include a risk assessment to estimate confidence level of freedom from disease after last year's imports for bovine leucosis and IBR, one regarding the import of live cattle concerning IBR, and one on the import of live pigs with respect to Aujeszky's disease. In order to focus on the technique behind it instead of just the results, solutions to resolve several subproblems, applicable to any import risk assessment, are presented. The examples are addressing general questions such as the probability of detecting infection during quarantine, the sensitivity and specificity of testing a group of sentinel animals, and the probability that the animal has already seroconverted at time of testing. Other topics are how to implement risks of being infected for different age classes and a proposal for a non-standard approach to derive estimates for test performance from literature by using bayes modelling. Depth and extent of explanations and discussion will be determined by the audience.